IRCC Tables Immigration Levels Plan 2025-2027

OVERVIEW

Every year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) releases a new Immigration Levels Plan which provides immigration projections/targets for the next three years. These targets are largely developed to reflect Canada’s economic needs however, they also consider the impact of global humanitarian needs. For the settlement and integration sector, the Levels Plan functions as both an early notice of expected immigration levels as well as an indicator of the current perceptions of immigration within Canada.

This year’s announcement was especially anticipated for a number of reasons. Earlier in the year, the government of Canada announced that this year’s Levels Plan would for the first time include temporary residents’ numbers, an addition that the settlement sector had been petitioning for quite some time. In addition, whereas the past years had seen steady growth in the number of targeted newcomers, Canadian media highly speculated that this year’s levels plan would see a significant reduction in levels.

As well, National Sector Engagement meetings are happening this week in Ottawa. A few key notes related to the discussions regarding the Call for Proposal notification letters and the Settlement Allocation Model (SAM) are on page 5.

Highlights and Analysis:

• The 2025 priority categories include: health care occupations, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency. Categories are established each year, informed by labour market information and projections as well as input received from partners, including provinces and territories, and stakeholders across the country.
• More than 40% of anticipated permanent resident admissions in 2025 will be from those who are already in Canada as temporary residents.
• Focuses on economic immigration, with approximately 62% of total permanent resident admissions that will be dedicated to the economic class, in key sectors such as health and trades, by 2027
• Compared to last year’s plan, overall planned admissions of permanent residents are:
  • 395,000 in 2025
  • 380,000 in 2026
  • 365,000 in 2027
• Temporary Residents admission numbers align with Government of Canada’s plan to decrease the number of temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years
• Compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by
  • 445,901 in 2025
  • 445,662 in 2026
  • followed by a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027

When comparing this year’s figures, not only is there a substantive drop in the overall targets, 105,000 fewer planned permanent resident admissions for 2025 than what last year’s plan indicated, a 21% drop, but the downward trajectory is in complete opposition to the targets presented in the previous two plans. When examining the Immigration Levels Plans released in 2022 and 2023, there is a clear growth and stabilization pattern present and in fact there is very little difference in targets between the two. For example both plans held a target of 485,000 planned permanent resident admissions in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. In comparison, this year’s plan shows substantial drops in each immigration category, including economic immigrants, and does not align itself with the previously established pattern. In fact, rather than stabilization, there are seemingly continuous cuts making it difficult to predict what the target levels will look like come November 1, 2025, and if there will be even more reductions. As we see planned targets return to pre-pandemic levels, we are entering into uncharted territory and as more and more information is released, we will continue to keep our membership updated.