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Looking Ahead to Canada’s Demographics in 2041

September 9, 2022

By CIC News |

The world can change a lot in 20 years, and that reality is no different when we look at Canada in particular. On September 8, Statistics Canada released its projection for Canada’s demographic makeup in the year 2041.

These projections, which are rooted in data from 2016’s Census of Population, provide some key insights into where present figures and statistics project the country to be from a demographic standpoint in roughly 19 years.

A record-high proportion of immigrants in the Canadian population in 2041
Furthering a trend that began more than two decades ago, immigration is projected to continue being one of Canada’s primary population drivers over the coming decades.

Accordingly, Statistics Canada projects that the immigrant population in Canada could skyrocket by anywhere from 7.2% and 12.1% between 2016 and 2041.

Using more concrete numbers, StatsCan predicts that the percentage of immigrants in Canada, which was 21.9% in 2016, could balloon to somewhere in the range of 29.1% to 34.0% in the next nearly 19 years — a number that would represent the highest historical level in the country’s 155-year history.

In 2041, if current trends continue, half of the Canadian population will be made up of immigrants and their Canadian-born children
In line with the expected increase in Canada’s immigrant population, it is anticipated that, by 2041, “immigrants and their Canadian-born children” could account for 52.4% of the country’s total population based on the reference scenario used by StatsCan. This would be an increase of 12.4% from 2016 when Canada’s population came in at 14.4 million and the same group made up 40% of that total.

What’s more, is that the above percentage (52.4%) may be just in the middle range of possible outcomes. In fact, it is suggested that the actual number could be as high as 54.3% (with the low-end figure coming in at 49.8%).

This would mean that the number of immigrants and their Canadian-born children in Canada could be somewhere between 23.7 and 25.9 million (according to the projected Canadian population of 47.7 million in 2041).

In 2041, about 2 in 5 Canadians will be part of a racialized group
As StatsCan gets deeper into the specificity of Canada’s projected demographics in 2041, it is revealed that the racialized population in the country could reach between 16.4 and 22.3 million people. This figure would mean that racialized persons in Canada project to account for between 38.2% and 43% of Canada’s total population, up from 22.2% in 2016 (when the number of people in this category was 8 million).

Note: The Canadian government notes that the descriptor used here — “racialized” population — refers to “persons belonging to a visible minority group”, as derived directed from the “visible minority group” variable that has been part of the information collected through Statistics Canada’s Census of Population since 1996.

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